03.10.2022
u.s. democrats change nomination rules - greater chance for non-establishment candidates

Bernie sanders. Image: nick solari. License: cc by 2.0

Officials and officeholders who "superdelegates", are to vote in future only in the second candidate ballot mabgeblich with

In u.S. Democratic primaries, many more party officials and officeholders have been allowed to vote so far than so-called "superdelegates" with vote than with the republicans. Bernie sanders, who lost the party’s last nomination race to hillary clinton, criticized this as undemocratic. While he had lost the nomination even without the superdelegates leaning overwhelmingly toward the establishment candidate, he believes that many primaries would have turned out differently if voters had not believed clinton would win the nomination because of the superdelegates alone.

Barely two years after clinton lost the election to anti-establishment republican donald trump despite massive media support, the democratic national committee has now decided to change the rules. Officials and office-holders will still be allowed to vote as superdelegates – but only in the second round of voting, which will only take place if no candidate wins an absolute majority in the first round.

Potential candidates

This potentially increases the chances of candidates outside the party establishment, among whom sanders could once again be counted on. A more easily controllable candidate with a milder aubenseiter image compared to him would be, for example, oprah winfrey. She openly considered running earlier this year, but then canceled (cf. Promoting politics). Facebook founder marc zuckerberg, his ceo sheryl sandberg (whom spd politician ralf stegner compared to beate zschape on twitter) and hollywood stars george clooney and tom hanks also officially denied ambitions to run. Only the actor alec baldwin declared his candidacy on 11 november. June, he can trump "absolutely" beat.

U.S. Media cite leg-amputee part-thai veteran and senator tammy duckworth, samoan-born senator tulsi gabbard, indian-jamaican-born senator kamala harris, dutch-born colorado governor john hickenlooper and former vice president joe biden, among others, as potential candidates from the party establishment. Hillary and chelsea clinton, on the other hand, have canceled (at least officially and for the time being), as has senator elisabeth warren, who was previously considered the favorite and who lost so much credibility due to her pocahontas affair that she declared she would not run in 2020, which is why she is now considered a potential candidate for 2024 (cf. Kanye west vs. Elizabeth warren?).

In addition to such undeclared candidates, there are also those who have already officially announced their candidacy: maryland house of representatives backbencher john delaney, solar apostle harry braun, conspiracy apostle jeff boss, basic income apostle andrew yang, the "free hugs guy" ken nwadike, patient advocate geoffrey fieger, former reform party member rocky de la fuente, and robby wells, who previously sought election to the constitution party. Real chances are not granted to all these early applicants.

Mid-term elections

Sanders announced on 14. August on msnbc, first to run in the november midterm elections for one of vermont’s senate seats. And again as an independent candidate, even if the democrats there nominated him as their candidate. It is a foregone conclusion that he will also win as an independent.

Overall, according to the predictit betting site, republicans have a good chance of retaining their majority in the senate. After that, republican senate seats in arizona, nevada and tennessee are at risk – but in florida, indiana, north dakota and missouri, democrats fear a loss. For donald trump, the situation in the senate could become a little more comfortable even before the new appointments, because republican senator john mccain, one of the president’s fiercest intraparty opponents, died of brain cancer on saturday.

More open is which party will have a majority in the other chamber of congress, the house of representatives, after the midterm elections. Established u.S. Media such as cnbc see the democrats as having a 70 percent probability of winning – but before the presidential election they also saw the eventual loser, hillary clinton, as having about the same probability of winning. It is possible that partisanship, as twitter ceo jack dorsey has long openly admitted, obscures the view of real sentiment.

If the republicans succeeded in holding not only the senate but also the house of representatives, trump could sell that as a remarkable success, given the history of midterm elections in the united states: traditionally, the party of the incumbent president loses in the midterm elections. This happens so regularly that ronald reagan was the last president whose party still had majorities in both chambers after a mid-term election. His successors to date have mostly lost majorities in both chambers.

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